What do you think Joey Chestnut is doing
today?
“Belching” would be an understatement. Joey received the
coveted
mustard yellow belt yesterday for eating 66 hot dogs in 12
minutes (one every
11 seconds), knocking off six-time winner Takeru Kobayashi
in a record-setting
triumph.
Investors in one of the now-infamous Bear
Stearns hedge
funds are offering to sell their shares for 11 cents on the
dollar, but the
best bid is only at 5 cents! This is according to Hedgebay,
a secondary market
for funds. Bankers said initial valuations of the Enhanced
Leverage Fund's assets
indicated a strong chance that investors' cash had been
wiped out.
The only news out today was the weekly
Jobless Claims
number, and the 10-yr yield sits at 5.10%, and 30-yr
mortgage prices are worse
by almost .250 in price. Jobless Claims
came out at 5:30AM,
and showed they were +2k to 318k, and although it hasn’t
helped us this
morning the more important 4-week moving average has been
creeping up. Tomorrow
we have the employment data which has the potential to
cause a great deal of
volatility in the markets. It is expected to show that
125,000 new jobs were
added to the economy last month, while the unemployment
rate remained at 4.5%
and average earnings rose 0.3%.
Based on current data, 11% of loan
collateral for all sub
prime mortgage bonds had payments at least 90 days late,
were in foreclosure,
or had the underlying property seized, according to
securities firm
Friedman, Billings & Ramsey. As little as two years ago,
it was half that
number. Interestingly, the three securities rating agencies
(S&P, Moody's,
and Fitch) have yet to downgrade most of the outstanding sub
prime debt because
they “don't downgrade based on assumptions and are awaiting
the reality
that the value (based on sales) has fallen.” If this should
happen, which
is likely according to many analysts, many investors subject
to holding
conditions of high-rated assets will be forced to sell,
leading to even lower
values.
In September, the FICO credit-scoring
system is set to
undergo a major overhaul. Fair Isaac Corp. is saying that it
won't have much of
an effect. Fair Isaac currently divides the population into
10 segments based
on credit history and applies a different formula to each.
Eight segments
include people with good credit, and two are for people with
serious problems.
Under the new system, the population will be divided into 12
segments: eight
for people with good credit, and four for people with bad
credit. That could
result in a slight change in many scores, but Fair Isaac
believes that the new system
will give lenders more dependable scores for those
higher-risk consumers and
those who have little history.