What will September 2007 be
remembered for? According to
Moody’s, homeowners owing $31.8 billion in subprime
adjustable-rate
mortgages began paying higher interest rates this
month. That is the highest
amount of subprime ARMs due to reset over a
one-month period in this housing
cycle.
Will Rogers
once said, “I'm more concerned about the return
of my money than the
return on my money." During the Depression of
the 1930’s, there
were runs on banks rumored to be “out of money”. A
run on a bank
occurs when a large number of depositors, fearing
that their bank will be
unable to repay their deposits in full and on time,
try to withdraw their funds
immediately. This creates a problem because banks
keep only a small fraction of
deposits on hand in cash; they lend out the majority
of deposits to borrowers
or use the funds to purchase other interest-bearing
assets like government
securities. In fact, one of the policies of the
Federal Reserve is to
establish reserve requirements for banks: banks
now have to set aside a certain
amount of cash in "reserve." The reserve
balance that banks must
maintain is typically a percentage of their total
interest-bearing and
non-interest-bearing checking account deposits
(currently 3% to 10%), and
therefore fluctuates with their account totals. A
bank run is unlikely to cause
insolvency (bankruptcy), since more often than not
other banks will make loans
to that bank that had the run! But if the
depositors' fears are justified and
the bank is economically insolvent, other banks
would be unlikely to throw good
money after bad by loaning money to the insolvent
bank.
Someone likes the mortgage biz!
Wilbur Ross, who last year
received $685 million in funding from Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. to pursue larger
buyouts of bankrupt companies, and who became a
billionaire by investing in
bankrupt steel companies, offered to pay $435
million for a unit of American
Home Mortgage Investment Corp. and said he plans to
``get into all aspects of
the mortgage industry.'' Ross formed AH Mortgage
Acquisition Co. to buy
American Home's servicing unit that collects
payments and maintains escrow
accounts for about $57 billion in home loans. To
complete the purchase, he must
win a court-sanctioned auction for the unit next
month. “We feel that the
mortgage industry is a very fundamental industry to
America,”
Ross said today in
an interview. “We felt the key starting place would
be servicing.” Ross
compared the state of the mortgage industry to the
opportunities he saw in
steel and auto parts five years ago when he bought
four bankrupt steel
companies and merged them to create North America's
second-largest steel producer.
Shares of WSB Financial Group Inc
(Westsound Mortgage)
dropped 19% on Monday after the bank holding company
said on late Friday that
it was cutting 33 jobs in its mortgage division, or
a quarter of its full-time
workforce.
And speaking of AMH, American
Home Mortgage Investment
Corp. bounced property tax checks for some Maryland
homeowners, local and state
officials said Monday, and they have demanded an
explanation from the bankrupt
mortgage lender and servicer. The Maryland
Commissioner of Financial Regulation
filed an inquiry with American Home Mortgage on
Friday. Mortgage servicers
typically collect property tax payments each month
with a borrower's mortgage
payment. The property taxes are then placed in an
escrow account and held until
property tax bills are due. Because they are placed
in an escrow account, funds
should always be available to make the payments.
Yesterday we had a fair amount of
economic news. Sales of
Existing Homes were down by 4.3% in August from the
previous month, according
to the NAR, and worse than expected. Sales are
running at their slowest pace
since the summer of 2002. The Conference Board index
of Consumer Confidence
fell in September to 99.8 from an upwardly revised
105.6 in August (previously
105.0) - its lowest level since November 2005. The
decline was led by the
“present situation” component, although
“expectations”
rose but “assessments of labor market conditions”
weakened. And
this morning the yield on the 10-yr is back up to
4.65% and 30-yr A-paper
prices are worse by about .125 in price.
A man was sprawled across three
entire seats in a theater.
When the usher came by and noticed this, he
whispered to the man, "Sorry
sir, but you're only allowed one seat."
The man groaned but didn't budge.
The usher became
impatient.
"Sir," the usher said, "if you
don't get up
from there, I'm going to have to call the manager."
Again, the man just groaned,
which infuriated the usher who
turned and marched briskly back up the aisle in
search of his manager. In a few
moments, both the usher and the manager returned and
stood over the man.
Together the two of them tried repeatedly to move
him, but with no success.
Finally, they summoned the police. The cop surveyed
the situation briefly.
"All right, buddy. What's your
name?"
"Sam," the man moaned.
"Where ya from, Sam?" the cop
asked.
"The balcony."