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Jul. 15, 2008: How do you get $1 million worth of bank stocks? Start with $2 million
Rob Chrisman
What Capital Markets employee hasn’t dreamed of being
a rodeo clown? “They put themselves in the line of danger every time they
go to work. With names like Shane, Flint, Cody,
Scooter, and Tex,
they evoke the nostalgia of the old west. Rodeo clowns make perhaps $100 to
$225 for a show, usually setting their own price based on travel expenses.
Rodeo clowns apprentice at local, small rodeos and at youth rodeo events, and
attend clown training schools, which hold training camps across the southwest
and in Colorado, Montana,
and Kansas -
big rodeo states. Or they may start out as cowboys first, and become
bullfighters later. Coors sponsors a “Man in the Can Award”, a
great honor to have on your clown resume.” Or a Secondary Marketing
resume.
Bank stocks got slammed yesterday as
investors and analysts worried that worsening housing and credit problems could
claim more banks after the failure of IndyMac. Suntrust, National
City, Zions Bancorp,
Washington Mutual, Sovereign
Bancorp, and KeyCorp grabbed the headlines. Trading in National City shares was briefly halted
Monday amid a panic-driven plunge before the company tried to quell what it called
market rumors, and fell 25%. WaMu shares were also down over 25% in one day.
M&T Bank Corp., of Buffalo,
N.Y., shares fell 16% yesterday.
SunTrust sank 8.6% Monday, and is down 55% this year.
Speaking of banks in the news, two of Canada's biggest banks are
following in the footsteps of ING Direct Canada by immediately purging 40-year
mortgages from their product line-ups in the wake of the federal government's
decision to toughen mortgage rules. Bank of Montreal was first to make that
announcement, noting the maximum amortization will be 35 years, and Canadian
Imperial Bank of Commerce issued a similar statement a short time later.
HUD has issued Mortgagee Letter 2008-16 which
implements risk-based pricing for upfront and annual mortgage insurance premiums
(MIP) on FHA loans.
The Fed approved a plan Monday that would crack down on
dubious lending practices. The Fed’s plan would bar
lenders from making loans without proof of a borrower's income, require lenders
to make sure risky borrowers set aside money to pay for taxes and insurance,
restrict lenders from penalizing risky borrowers who pay loans off early
(prepayment penalties are banned if the payment can change during the initial
four years of the mortgage, or a penalty can't be imposed in the first two
years of the mortgage), prohibit lenders from making a loan without considering
a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's
value. Other practices also would be clamped down on. Lenders, for instance,
have to credit a mortgage payment to the homeowner's account on the day it is
received. And, brokers and others are forbidden from "coercing or
encouraging" an appraiser to misrepresent the value of a home. Much will
hinge on effective enforcement. The plan would apply to new loans made by
thousands of lenders, including banks and brokers, not current loans. Those
different lenders fall under a patchwork of regulators at the federal and state
levels. So it will be up to each of these authorities to enforce the new provisions.
Doing any business in Connecticut?
The State of Connecticut
enacted HB 5577 - Nonprime Home Loan Restrictions, Foreclosure Restrictions,
Lender/Broker/Originator Licensing Requirements, Revisions to Anti-Predatory
Lending Law, and Appraiser Influence. HB5577 includes, among other things, the
establishment of a new category of “nonprime home loans” and places
restrictions on their origination, including ability to repay requirements. It
establishes several new foreclosure requirements, including a foreclosure
mediation process. Licensing requirements for mortgage lenders, mortgage
correspondent lenders, mortgage brokers, and loan originators are amended,
including consumer protection provisions for licensees and combining first and
second mortgage licenses.
We had some important economic news out today. The
Producer Price Index, expected to increase +1.3%, was +1.8%. The core PPI,
useful for folks that don’t eat or drive, was expected +0.3% and came out
at +.2% - slightly better. Producer Prices for the last year are +9.2%,
the largest increase since 1981! June Retail Sales, expected +0.4%
overall, were only +.1%, so analysts believe that the Fed stimulus checks
didn’t have quite the impact previously thought. Auto sales were -3.3%,
the biggest drop in over two years, and are down almost 10% versus a year ago
when loan agents were out buying Navigators and Expeditions. The July Empire
manufacturing index, expected +0.7 points, went from -4.9 from -8.7, better
than consensus expected. The components generally back up the headline as
orders and shipments both improved. Employment, however, deteriorated. Ahead we
have May business inventories, which are expected to show another +0.5%
increase. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate
Banking Committee on monetary policy and the economy at 10AM EST. After the
news mortgage prices are a tad better, and the 10-yr is at 3.84%.
A man’s wife had been slipping in and out of a coma
for several months, yet he had stayed by her bedside every single day.
One day, when she came to, she motioned for him to come nearer. As he sat
by her she whispered, eyes full of tears, "You know what? You have been
with me all through the bad times. When I got fired, you were there to support
me. When my business failed, you were there to support me. When my business
failed, you were there. When I got in a car wreck, you were by my side. When we
lost the house, you stayed right there. When my health started failing, you
were still by my side. You know what?"
What dear?" he gently asked, smiling as his heart began to fill with
warmth.
"I think you're bad luck, get the heck away from me....."
Rob
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