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Jan. 5, 2009: Good news for GMAC, rates help applications everywhere, but how did they creep back up?
Rob Chrisman
Rob
Watching rates go up for no sustainable apparent reason is
about as much fun as putting away Christmas ornaments and taking the tree to
the curb. As they say, “A rising tide raises all boats”, and low
rates have helped every lender still in the ring, big or small, regardless of
geographic concentration. U.S. Bank’s refi applications more than
doubled last month. Fifth Third, the Ohio
area’s largest lender, reported that refinance activity accounted for
almost two-thirds of loan applications in December compared with one-third a
month earlier. Even the Bank of Kentucky’s applications doubled from
November to December.
GMAC Bank's parent company, GMAC Financial Services,
announced that the Federal Reserve Bank has approved its application to become
a bank holding company. On top of that, the U.S. Treasury
announced that it will purchase $5 billion in senior preferred equity from GMAC,
and agreed to lend up to an additional $1 Billion in support of their
reorganization as a bank holding company.
Not much happened to the economy in the last 4-5 days, aside
from dire numbers coming from retailers which ordinarily would help rates. Yet
we find the 10-yr Treasury hit 2.50%! It has come back down slightly from
there, but keep in mind that a) The market was overbought, suggesting that a
correction was due, b) we have supply ahead with a 3-yr and 10-yr auction this
week on Wednesday and Thursday, and a 10-yr TIPS auction tomorrow, c) how much
lower did anyone think that rates were going to go, in the near term?
Fortunately mortgage rates and doing better than Treasuries, which makes some
sense given that they did not participate in the big move down. Currently
the 10-yr is at 2.43%, and mortgage prices are perhaps .5 better in price than
late last week, although it seems that no one is quite sure of where they
should be priced!
There is no news today, aside from Construction Spending.
Tomorrow we have the Commerce Department’s November Factory Orders data.
This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector
strength, both in durable and non-durable goods, and is expected down 2.6%.
Also Tuesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.
This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and
concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. The usual Jobless Claims on
Thursday, and then the final report of the week comes Friday morning when the
Labor Department will post December's employment figures. Current forecasts
call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate up to 7.0%, and Nonfarm
Payroll -500,000.
Warning: risqué.
An attorney arrived home late, after a very tough day trying
to get a stay of execution. His last minute plea for clemency to the governor
had failed and he was feeling worn out and depressed. As soon as he walked
through the door at home, his wife started on him about, “What time of
night to be getting home is this? Where have you been? Dinner is cold and I'm
not reheating it.” And on and on and on.
Too shattered to play his usual role in this familiar ritual, he poured himself
a shot of whiskey and headed off for a long hot soak in the bathtub, pursued by
the predictable sarcastic remarks as he dragged himself up the stairs.
While he was in the bath, the phone rang. The wife answered and was told that
her husband's client, James Wright, had been granted a stay of execution after
all. Wright would not be hanged tonight!
Finally realizing what a terrible day he must have had, she decided to go
upstairs and give him the good news.
As she opened the bathroom door, she was greeted by the sight of her husband,
bent over naked, drying his legs and feet. “They're not hanging Wright
tonight,” she said.
He whirled around and screamed, “FOR THE LOVE OF GOD WOMAN, DON'T YOU
EVER STOP?!”
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