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Jul. 14, 2009: Bastille Day; mortgage volume forecasts dropping; Freddie, Wells, $8k tax credit news
Rob Chrisman
I
can tell that I am grown up because I get up at 4AM, not go to bed at
4AM, and I no longer consider a $4.00 bottle of wine "pretty good
stuff". The French, known for their wine, celebrate Bastille Day today.
It
is called Fête Nationale (National Holiday) in France and commemorates
the 1790
Fête de la Fédération, held on the first anniversary of the storming of
the Bastille:
the Fête de la Fédération was seen as a symbol of the uprising of the
modern
French "nation," and of the reconciliation of all the French inside
the constitutional monarchy which preceded the First Republic, during
the
French Revolution. (The "Bastille" was the French prison where people
were held merely at the king's judgment.)
Economists focused on mortgage banking, most of who work for Freddie,
Fannie,
and the large investors, are all scaling back on their estimates of
mortgage
originations for 2009, and cutting them drastically for 2010. If
you are a
large company, who has invested extensively in "bricks and mortar",
how are you dealing with expected lower volumes? Recently the MBAA
lowered
its forecast for mortgage originations, for the fourth month in a row,
in 2009
to about $2 trillion. Last week I heard a respected speaker in the
business say
that his company believes that companies may want to scale their
operations
toward purchase business, which has hovered around $1 trillion a year.
If prices
are stable, or slide further, the dollar volume of purchases will
slide, and,
in the perfect storm environment, rates move higher, refinancing will
also
drop. The current MBAA estimate of 2009 purchase business has dropped
to $737
billion while refinances were reduced $1.3 trillion by the MBAA.
Freddie Mac's most recent bulletin addresses
the deficiencies that they
have seen in the underwriting process. The changes don't take effect until October
1, but look for large investors who sell to Freddie to change, if they
haven't
done so already. Freddie's announcement is directed toward the
borrower's
capacity to repay the mortgage, making sure their clients understand
Freddie's
appraisal requirements, preventing fraud, and amendments to
documentation
requirements for Loan Prospector Streamlined Accept and Standard
documentation
levels. Light-hearted items like those.
Doing relocation loans? Wells' wholesale will no longer allow
trailing
co-borrower income (a trailing co-borrower is a borrower who is not the
cause
of the relocation) to be considered in calculating the qualifying income.
"As a result, effective with registrations on and after July 20, 2009,
Wells Fargo Wholesale Lending will no longer accept trailing
co-borrower income
for conventional relocation loan transactions, including High Balance
relocation loans. Additionally, effective July 18, 2009, Wells Fargo
Home
Equity will no longer accept trailing co-borrower income to qualify a
transaction." Wells' wholesale also announced that they would no
longer
be buying 40-yr loans.
What do Flagstar and Taylor, Bean, & Whitaker have in common? To
the best
of my knowledge, with GMAC dropping out, they are the only two
lenders
participating in the $8k tax credit. It has become a big deal, in
spite of
the fact that the credit has some pretty severe restrictions.
"Consistent
with existing FHA Policy, Flagstar will allow tax credit advances with
second
liens from eligible governmental agencies and instrumentalities of
government
as long as the organization is also on Flagstar’s list of eligible
community
second programs. To make certain a non-profit agency is both
FHA-approved and
an instrumentality of government, refer to the appropriate
homeownership
center’s list of approved non-profit agencies."
"In
the old days", the Fed influenced the economy through
"open market operations". What are those? The Fed would typically
trade in safe, short-term T-bills, buying and selling them to impact
the
short-term, risk-free rate. Buying securities pushes the price up, and
rates
down. Although very short-term rates have dipped slightly below 0% a
few times
recently, usually rates can only go down to 0%, which limits the Fed's
activity
and impact. (If a Treasury security goes below 0%, investors would
rather hold
cash.) So let’s hope that they keep buying, since right now they
continue to be
the only game (or close to it) in town.
Not only have mortgage rates fallen below 5.25%, but LIBOR rates
continue to
decline. So what? Basically it means that banks
have become more comfortable with lending to each other, which is a key
step
toward banks being more comfortable with lending in general. And
this is
obviously a good thing. But even if banks are more comfortable, what
about the
consumer? Unfortunately the consumer is showing more signs of weakness,
according to last week's University of Michigan consumer sentiment
report which
worsened for the first time since February. And since the consumer
accounts for
about two thirds of GDP, it is not good news - or is it? If folks
like you
and me continue to hunker down, it leads to more saving and less
spending IF
the consumer actually has a job. Today we had two key pieces of
information, after the overnight rallies that we saw in Asian and
European
stock markets and a release of strong Goldman Sachs earnings. The
Retail Sales
number showed a stronger-than-expected 0.6 percent in June, ex-auto
+.3%. And U.S.
producer prices jumped by twice as much as expected in June due to
energy: +1.8%,
the biggest jump late 2007. Taking out food and energy, core PPI was
+.5%, also
higher than expected. This news, combined with the strength in
stocks, has
pushed the 10-yr back up to 3.44% and made mortgage prices worse by
.375-.5.
(Warning: R-rated.)
When
Charles DeGaulle decided to retire from public life, the British
ambassador and his wife threw a gala dinner party in his honor.
At the dinner table, the Ambassador's wife was
talking with Madame de Gaulle" "Your husband has been such a
prominent public figure, such a presence on the French and
international scene
for so many years! How quiet retirement will seem in comparison. What
are you most looking forward to in these retirement years?"
"A penis," replied Madame deGaulle.
A huge hush fell over the table. Everyone heard her answer... and no
one knew
what to say next.
Charles leaned over to his wife and said, "Ma cherie, I believe ze
English
pronounce zat word, 'happiness’!"
Rob
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