Do you tend to buy stocks
or real estate when the market is improving? And sell when the market
is
worsening? If so, join the crowd. This action, of course, creates its
own “feedback
loop”, also called “price-to-price feedback”. When the feedback
stops,
markets often turn around, or a speculative bubble bursts. Astute
traders
include watching stock volumes during trading days, although they must
make
allowances for things like summer vacations, the day before a 3-day
weekend,
etc. But speaking of volumes, I am currently sitting here in Nevada, in
the
Lake Tahoe area, looking out over a vast sea of "For Sale" signs - I
have never seen so many. According to the MBAA, 21% of
Nevada’s mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure. Why
would anyone expect real estate prices to increase, given typical
supply and demand activity?
It is generally accepted that the high-end real estate is feeling
the brunt
of the credit crisis right now. Given the higher unemployment, the
uncertainty about the future of expensive properties, and the loss of a
liquid
jumbo lending market across the nation, I have yet to see any analysts
bullish
on properties worth more than $1 million. The "lower" end
properties, however, are benefiting from low interest rates, renewed
attention
from mortgage investors and the US government, and demand for
foreclosure
sales. Interesting times...
What happened Monday in
the markets? Well, after an ugly Friday afternoon, fixed income
securities came
roaring back with prices improving and rates inching lower. Most
investors had
intra-day price improvements. Locks and originations are down
somewhat,
which helps, The Fed was in doing their usual buy-back of securities,
and the
stock market losing a little steam didn't hurt bonds either. For
mortgage-backed securities, a 4.5% coupon security (which would contain
4.75-5.125% mortgages) is priced at about a .5 discount. But by the
time an
investor adds their servicing released premium of 1-2 points, suddenly
the
secondary market is paying .5-1.5 over par for these loans. There is
still
profit in originations!
We have the 2-yr auction
today. Who will pony up to buy a piece of the $42 billion and earn
about 1.02%
for two years? We’ll see, but many expect it to go well. Ben Bernanke
has been
nominated by Obama for a second term as Federal Reserve Chief, which is
helping
to calm markets. We will also have the S&P/Case Shiller Index, and
at 7AM PST
we’ll have the Consumer Confidence numbers. Mortgage prices are
roughly
unchanged from Monday afternoon, and the 10-yr is chopping around 3.50%.
As noted above, Bernanke
has been nominated for a second term. His nomination for a second
four-year
term, which would start in late January, requires Senate approval and
was
endorsed by the head of the Banking Committee, Christopher Dodd. So
don’t look
for too many surprises during the process.
Do you remember how there
was a public opinion period for the HVCC, which passed, and then when
HVCC was
put in place everyone was upset? Well, apparently the Fed is
addressing how
mortgage loan officers are paid. Given that a loan originator or
mortgage
broker “is any person who for compensation or other monetary gain
arranges,
negotiates, or otherwise obtains an extension of consumer credit for
another person”;
you’ll have to check out the website below. I don’t have the attention
span to
go through the entire document, but it doesn’t look good…
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2009/20090723/FR%20Notice--CE.pdf
Bank of America has agreed to pay $150
million to settle a lawsuit alleging Merrill Lynch executives mislead
investors
about the bank's condition. The suit targeted a number of Merrill Lynch
executives and board members, including the former CEO. We all remember
that Bank
of America formally acquired Merrill Lynch at the start of the year
after
agreeing to buy the struggling investment bank last fall.
In news that surprised no
one, Taylor, Bean & Whitaker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
protection and said it may liquidate, three weeks after it closed its
mortgage
lending business. TBW said it plans to operate on a scaled-down basis
as it
works to recover, restructure and possibly liquidate its assets – not
an easy
task with more than $1 billion of both assets and liabilities, and
between
1,000 and 5,000 creditors.
StoneWater Mortgage clarified their stance
on the MDIA regulations, saying that “loans submitted to SWM on or
after
September 1st, 2009 may not have collected any fees other than for a
credit report prior to the borrower(s) receiving the SWM early
TIL/GFE. All loan submissions not in compliance with SWM MDIA policies
will be stopped. SWM will use the estimated fund date from the loan
submission
screen to calculate the interest for all disclosures. SWM will disclose
a 3%
YSP on non-locked loans if the business partner's GFE does not disclose
a
YSP figure.”
When was the last time a
borrower asked Franklin American for a 40-yr loan? It must have
been a
long time, because due to a lack of demand FAMC has removed the 40 year
fixed
rate mortgage as an option from their rate sheet.
[Warning: PG-rated.]
Old people have problems that you haven't even considered yet! An
85-year-old man was requested by his doctor for a sperm count as part
of his
physical exam. The doctor gave the man a jar and said, '"Take this jar
home and bring back a semen sample tomorrow."
The next day the 85-year-old man reappeared at the doctor's office and
gave him
the jar, which was as clean and empty as on the previous day.
The doctor asked what happened and the man explained:
"Well, doc, it's like this--first I tried with my right hand, but
nothing.
Then I tried with my left hand, but still nothing.. 'Then I asked my
wife for
help. She tried with her right hand, then with her left, still nothing.
She
tried with her mouth, first with the teeth in, then with her teeth out,
still
nothing. 'We even called up Arleen, the lady next door and she tried
too. First
with both hands, then an armpit, and she even tried squeezing' it
between her
knees, but still nothing."
The doctor was shocked! "You asked your neighbor?"
The old man replied, "Yep, none of us could get the jar open."
Rob
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