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Sep. 1, 2009: "Opportunity cost"; news from DocMagic/Ellie Mae, GMAC, Wells, Flagstar, US Bank
Rob Chrisman
When
mortgage banks are constrained by their warehouse lines, and they have
to
decide which loans to fund or not to fund, is that an example of
“opportunity
cost”? Yes, although it doesn’t show up on P&L statements. “Opportunity
cost” is defined as “the value of the next best alternative forgone as
the
result of making a decision”. Mortgage banks, and every other
company, must
deal with these costs every time they make a decision: deciding between
something desirable (funding a given loan) and mutually-exclusive (we
can only
fund $1 million but we have $3 million out for funding). But this is
not
limited to companies – individuals deal with it every single day. “Do I
watch
TV or take the dog for a walk?” “Do I buy a flat screen TV for every
room or
put my child through college?” And so on.
The
reason I mention this is that behavioral economists feel that
successful
business men and women have both an intuitive grasp of this concept,
and also a
firm grasp of the economics that contribute toward the decision. In
other
words, successful mortgage bankers don’t just “flip a coin” in
deciding to
open a new branch in a different town, opening up or closing down a
product
line, or being originating loans out of state.
Back
to something simple, like the economy! We saw many intra-day price
changes
yesterday, mostly for the better. Wall Street firms reported a “decent
bid” for
product, especially given that there are no major Treasury auctions
this week. We
did have the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, which increased to its
highest
level since September. As I explained yesterday, economists watch this
number
for an early read on the economy, in spite of manufacturing here in the
US
being only 12% of the economy. Today we will have Construction Spending
and the
ISM index. Currently the 10-yr is at 3.40% and mortgage security
prices are
a smidge worse than yesterday afternoon, but a smidge better than
yesterday
morning.
And
for investor news…
GMAC
followed Fannie's TBW announcement. “Due to Taylor Bean and Whitaker's
recent
disqualification as an originator/seller/issuer/servicer by HUD, Ginnie
Mae and
Freddie Mac, and its subsequent bankruptcy filing, please be advised
that GMAC
Bank will not buy or warehouse any loans that were originated by or
sourced
through Taylor Bean or its affiliates until further notice.”
DocMagic
is suing Ellie Mae (for $5
million and an injunction) for antitrust
violations, intentional interference with contractual relationships,
interference with prospective economic advantage and unfair
competition.
According to the suit, DocMagic’s loan document software was available
to users
of Ellie Mae’s Encompass loan origination software, and that Ellie Mae
used
information specific to DocMagic’s software integration to create its
own software
product.
http://www.courthousenews.com/2009/08/31/Mortgage_Firm_Faces_Antitrust_Complaint.htm
Flagstar is
increasing the maximum total debt ratio for FHA loans that receive a
Total
Scorecard “approve” or “accept” response to 55. There is no maximum
housing
ratio for loans approved through automated underwriting. If a credit
score
cannot be obtained due to an absence of usable credit, the borrower
remains eligible
for FHA financing, subject to a) a maximum housing ratio is 31%,
regardless of
the number and type of non-traditional credit sources, b) maximum total
debt
ratio is 43%, regardless of the number and type of non-traditional
credit sources,
and c) all other FHA requirements announced in FHA Mortgagee Letter
2008-11 –
Non-Traditional Credit Verification and Evaluation apply. Flagstar also
told clients that, in
spite of the VA not requiring appraisals for Interest Rate Reduction
Refinancing Loans (IRRRLs), Flagstar is requiring an appraisal for all
IRRRLs.
Wells Fargo’s Correspondent group told their clients that
starting today
they are revising their
conventional policy for “documenting cash assets from publicly traded
stocks,
bonds, mutual funds, U.S. government securities and retirement plans to
the
following, when cash assets are used for down payment, closing costs,
financing
costs and prepaids/escrows: In addition to providing a copy of the
account
statement for the most recent month/quarter, proof of liquidation must
also be
documented with: borrower’s ownership of the asset, and value of the
asset at
the time of sale or liquidation, and borrower’s actual receipt of funds
realized from the sale or liquidation.”
Is
the "portfolio loan" business dead? No. For example, US Bank
is out there advertising “portfolio jumbos” with no price or rate hits
up to
$900k, IO loans, cash outs, etc. Hopefully it is a good sign, although
no one
appears to be loosening any guidelines.
A
US Congressman was seated next to a little girl on the airplane when
the Congressman
turned to her and said, “Let's talk. I've heard that flights go quicker
if you
strike up a conversation with your fellow passenger.”
The little girl, who had just opened her book, closed it slowly and
said to the
stranger, “What would you like to talk about?”
“Oh, I don't know,” said the Representative. “How about the banking
crisis?” And
he smiles.
“OK,”' she said. “That could be an interesting and timely topic. But
let me ask
you a question first: A horse, a cow, and a deer all eat the same stuff
-
grass. Yet a deer excretes little pellets, while a cow turns out a flat
patty,
and a horse produces clumps of dried grass. Why do you suppose that is?”
The Congressman, visibly surprised by the little girl's intelligence,
thinks
about it and says, “Hmmm, I have no idea.”
To which the little girl replies, “Do you really feel qualified to
discuss
banking when you don't know sh-t?”
Rob
(For archived commentaries, check
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