The MBA conference has ended, and it is off to New Mexico for me, and then Seattle. Hopefully in those locations no one knows  the phrases, "I'll reach out to you later this week," "I'd like to circle back with you on that," "Let's do a meeting first thing next week," and, "I'd like to deploy resources on changing that procedure."

But I also overheard some edgier phrases. "Every aspect of my life is being over-regulated." "I don't mind higher taxes, but I have no confidence that the government is going to do anything more worthwhile with my money than I would." "With BofA leaving correspondent, is someone like Chase going to be next?" "The government is holding QRM over our heads like a sword - we're just waiting for it to drop."* "The government can't even approve a chairman of the CFPB - and with QR I am supposed to listen to their DTI and LTV requirements?" “The White House says it supports housing – maybe it should take a look at the latest MBA estimates for 2012 production (below).”

(* Speaking of QRM, it is rumored that regulators received so many comments on their risk-retention rules, and concerns about some of the provisions, that some expecting the agencies to issue a whole new proposal. The lack of clarity about whether the amount of risk retained is based on par or fair value is one such aspect. Regulators will take heat for ignoring the feedback if they advance the current proposal, so here we sit…)

A "sluggish growth" environment. Our economy is "weak but not collapsing." "Not bad is the new 'good'." These are the terms that economists and Wall Street analysts are using to describe the current US economy. Less bad might be good, but the fact remains that it boils down to jobs and housing, and housing and jobs. And the fact that the consumer is not going to spend until the economy improves, and the economy is not going to improve until the consumer spends. In mortgage land, the MBA estimates that $900 billion in mortgage originations are expected for 2012 — the lowest volume for the industry since 1997, and down 2011’s $1.2 trillion. Next year, refinancing is expected to drop significantly, coupled with only a slight increase in mortgages to purchase a home – experts think the $900 billion will be 50% purchase and 50% refi.

What is going on out there among originators? After all, rates are at historic lows, but volume of new originations is below the expectations of originators and investors. Everyone has a #1 reason. One is that traditional mortgage brokers have seen their ranks decimated, or folded into larger lenders, and a good percentage of loan agents have significantly reduced commissions. In addition, everyone tells me that there are few easy loans - every loan is a potential land mine and appraisals, credit docs, & supporting documentation are tougher than ever. Recent borrowers have some equity, but many don’t have enough for a down payment, and borrowers from between 3-7 years ago don’t, and can’t refinance, and anyone who has undergone a short sale or foreclosure is eliminated from the pool of potential borrowers for years. Agents hear that some existing mortgagors are anticipating a substantial mortgagor bailout from our government, so why go through the cost and hassle of refinancing now, especially when renting might be a better alternative.  And some are nervous enough about housing prices and the job markets to make them hold off for now.

Ernst Publishing Company has reported that a survey the firm conducted shows that 80 percent of respondents considered recording fees and transfer taxes to be the top challenge that the Good Faith Estimate (GFE) and HUD-1 present to them. The Ernst survey was e-mailed to more than 8,600 clients of the firm, of which almost six percent responded.

The U.S. Supreme Court & RESPA: it agreed to clarify the circumstances in which home buyers can sue mortgage lenders for allegedly charging them unearned fees during the closing process. The case centers on a group of lawsuits from Louisiana in which borrowers alleged Quicken Loans Inc. charged them loan-discount fees but did not provide reduced interest rates in return. Quicken Loans said the fees were legal and denied allegations that the fees were unearned. The plaintiffs argue the law was meant to forbid both kickbacks and unearned fees. The Obama administration is supporting their position, saying that HUD has consistently interpreted the law to prohibit the charging of any unearned fees. Clarifying RESPA: Freeman v. Quicken Loans, 10-1042. Oral arguments will take place early next year, with a decision expected by the end of June.

Plaza Home Mortgage added a new AMC to its approved panel. “As of Wednesday, October 12, Axis Appraisal Management Solutions will be providing appraisals for our Sacramento Office. ALL appraisals MUST be ordered through the Plaza website to ensure compliance and that each order is directed to the correct AMC.”

But things aren’t so rosy farther south in the state. In San Diego it seems that AppraiserLoft’s employees were told last week that it is insolvent by CEO Aman Makkar. "The GSEs are taking longer and longer to pay, and as a result payments to appraisers are delayed," Makkar said in an interview with HousingWire.

360 Mortgage out of Austin, Texas announced to its brokers, "No more overlays! (On Standard Conforming Products) 360 makes mortgage lending so easy. If you can spell "DU", you can get a loan done at 360. Forget about Standard Conforming Product overlays, & zip through the loan process even faster than a turtle strapped to a rocket. We make our brokers look good."

LoanSifter launched its LoanSifter Available Mortgage Rate Index (AMRI), “the mortgage industry's first complete, real-time mortgage rate index and the only index that provides a realistic idea of what borrowers typically pay for a loan. The LoanSifter AMRI is derived from actual daily mortgage rate searches. It can be found online at ww.LoanSifterMortgageIndex.com beginning in October, and can be used by mortgage lenders, journalists, borrowers and other parties to gain insight into the current costs of getting a home loan, the current pricing environment, and the overall climate for mortgage rates, as well as to identify trends in the mortgage market.”

Companies such as Bay Equity (San Francisco) and PHH Mortgage sent out clarifications on VA Funding Fees. Namely, since the bill was not signed into law until October 5, 2011, loans closed between October 1 and October 5, 2011 would require the lower funding fee factors previously announced. “Loans closed on or after October 6, 2011 will require the previous/higher funding fee factors. “The VA circular also provided the factors that will be effective on November 18, 2011. However, the VA also indicated there would be congressional efforts to change these funding fee factors in the coming weeks.”

(Bay Equity points out that funding fees for Interest Rate Reduction Refinancing Loans (IRRRLs) and Assumptions will not change. They will remain at .50 percent.)

After November 1 GMAC Bank Correspondent Funding told approved delegated clients that it has increased its underwriting fee from $225 to $400 “on all conforming, conventional loans underwritten through GMACB's Prior Approval Department. The underwriting fee for HomePath and Jumbo products will remain at $225. An explanation must be included with the file as to the reasoning for using the Prior Approval process. Please note that under current reps and warrants, the client is held responsible to alert GMACB if the loan may not be eligible for sale to the agencies.”

HSOA got the word out to its brokers that, “Due to investor changes, the following changes apply to VA loans: Wholesale loans are now accepted in Oregon. The restrictions in Rhode Island and Michigan remain in effect. Refinances on properties currently listed for sale are not permitted. And that for full doc (non-IRRRL) refinances, six months to application date if borrower receives cash back or consolidates debt. Three months to application date if borrower only pays off existing first lien and receives no cash back. For IRRRLs, the listing must be cancelled prior to application date.”

Looking at the markets, yesterday’s 3-year note auction went fine, coming in at .54% and with the highest bid-to-cover ratio in over a year. There really wasn’t too much in the way of news, and although they did pretty well relative to Treasury securities MBS finished the day worse by about .125. The only news out so far was the weekly MBA mortgage applications number which was up 1.3% last week. Both refinancing and purchase applications were up slightly, with refi’s still constituting about 79% of all apps. Later we have the release of the FOMC minutes form the September 20-21 meeting, and the second leg of the auctions with $21 billion of 10-yr notes. Ahead of those the 10-yr is at 2.22% early on and MBS prices aren’t doing much.

Blonde's Year in Review:

January: Took new scarf back to store because it was too tight.  
February: Fired from pharmacy job for failing to print labels. Helllloooo!!! Bottles won't fit in printer!
March: Got really excited.....finished jigsaw puzzle in 6 months..... Box said '2-4 years!'  
April: Trapped on escalator for hours - Power went out!
May: Tried to make Kool-Aid - wrong instructions - 8 cups of water won't fit into those little packets!
June: Tried to go water skiing but couldn't find a lake with a slope.    
July: Lost breast stroke swimming competition. Learned later that the other swimmers cheated, they used their arms!
August: Got locked out of my car in rain storm..... Car swamped because soft-top was open.
September: The capital of California is 'C'.....isn't it?   
October: Hate M & M's - They are so hard to peel.  
November: Baked turkey for 4 1/2 days. Instructions said 1 hour per pound and I weigh 108!
December: Couldn't call 911. 'Duh'.....there's no 'eleven' button on the phone!