In
news that should surprise no one, the Census Bureau reports that
the U.S. population 65
and older is growing faster than any other group and is now
the largest in terms of size and percent of the population
according to a new 2010 Census brief. According to the 2010
Census, there were 40.3 million people 65 and older on April 1,
2010, increasing by 5.3 million since the 2000 Census. In 2010,
the older population represented 13% of the total population, up
from 12.4% ten years earlier. Between 2000 and 2010, the
population 65 and older grew 15% while the total U.S. population
grew 10%. For you reverse mortgage experts, 85- to 94-year-olds
experienced the fastest growth between 2000 and 2010 – up 30%!
Hopefully
few
of those folks need to work to make ends meet, but if they did
there are mortgage companies hiring. In Colorado, Peoples Mortgage
Corporation (a subsidiary of Peoples National Bank)
created a new division in the state led by Jeff Garman and Paul
John and is looking for
retail LO’s & mortgage bankers. Mr. Garman, VP of
Sales and Business Development, comments that, “our platform is
second to none and truly brings solid producers to the next
level.” This division is also looking for in-house closing and
post-closing departments. Contact Jeff Garman at jgarman@epeoples.com
or Paul John at pjohn@epeoples.com for
more information.
And
out in Northern California, I have been retained by a
well-capitalized, expanding mortgage bank to assist in its
search for a National
Underwriting Manager. It is licensed in 12 West Coast
states and is currently funding approximately $100 million a
month. The ideal candidate will be responsible for managing the
underwriters’ performance through the development and
implementation of monthly score cards, the underwriting quality
of all office locations, implementing training, working with
other senior managers, tracking investor guidelines, rolling out
new products, and so on. Please send resumes to me at rchrisman@robchrisman.com.
(I am in meetings much of the day, but will respond when I can.)
How
much did single family investors help cause the credit crisis?
The New York Fed's latest study shows that real estate
“investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of
mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential
properties—played a previously unrecognized, but very important,
role. "These investors likely helped push prices up during
2004-06; but when prices turned down in early 2006 they
defaulted in large numbers and thereby contributed importantly
to the intensity of the housing cycle’s downward leg." Hey,
don't shoot the messenger: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2011/12/flip-this-house-investor-speculation-and-the-housing-bubble.html.
It certainly shows why
many servicers are wary of extending several loans to one
borrower, in spite of proponents saying those borrowers are
“professional investors and know what they’re doing.”
Last
week the commentary discussed the industry trend away
from selling loans to aggregators and toward direct agency
approval. John Jacobs, SVP of Secondary for Patriot Bank
Mortgage wrote, "I am responding to the comment about the amount
of business going to Fannie direct. We are a relatively small
correspondent lender and we are applying to become a Fannie
seller/servicer for the reasons you have stated in the past. Very low multiples being
paid for servicing are driving the retention of servicing for
those companies that can afford the cash flow hit. In a
past life, I have been a buyer of servicing, and am stunned by
how long the ‘cartel’ has been able to buy servicing with well
less than 100 basis points of the price being paid for the
servicing rights. Irrespective of prepayment speeds, the
economic value of current production has to model out well north
of 100 basis points. Competition will change this dynamic if
other correspondent lenders decide to compete for the business.
They are delusional if they think that they can continue to buy
loans in major size for long, once the sellers realize how much
they are leaving on the table by selling servicing instead of
retaining it. As the saying goes, ‘we only want to date pretty
girls’ but that may not always be possible.”
Yesterday
the
commentary mentioned a
precedent in Georgia for GMAC's pulling out of Massachusetts
in its correspondent & wholesale channel. Chip C. from FNC
wrote, "Rob, the issue here in Georgia was assignee
liability. The legislature passed a law which made the
investors liable for the potential errors of the originators.
Fannie and Freddie immediately withdrew from the state (at the
time they had the deepest pockets), and of course mortgage
credit would have dried up has the law taken effect." And Brian
B. from Two River Mortgage noted, "Also, it was New Jersey that
S&P refused to rate and thus lenders were pulling out when
they implemented their High Cost Loan law. I believe it November
2003."
The
realization has set in that the best parts of HARP 2.0 may not
be available until after the first quarter of 2012 to brokers
and mortgage bankers
for borrowers who are upside down by more than 25%. First, only
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans executed before May 31st, 2009
are eligible. While the manually underwritten products are
currently available, they are open only to loan servicers – most
other lenders cannot process manually underwritten conventional
loans. One lender wrote, “The products that RMCV will be
offering utilize the AUS engines which unfortunately won’t
support the updates until March 2012. While we can continue to
offer the DU Refi Plus and Open Access products currently
available, we cannot offer the updated features until the AUS
engines recognize the changes.”
The
CFPB is accepting complaints regarding home mortgages
and will be prepared to handle complaints for all consumer
financial products by the end of 2012. For the latest news on
mortgages from the agency visit http://www.consumerfinance.gov/press-center/.
Here’s
an “interesting” sales
pitch to consumers. “In working with sellers, we've found
that most people have the false assumption that the bank does
not want to foreclose. While this is true in some cases, the
banks actually WANT to foreclose on many of the homes out there.
Why? Well, the longer you wait to sell your property, the more
costs the banks have into it, and the less willing they are to
negotiate. That's why when
we acquire your property we immediately begin our legal
foreclosure defense to stop the bank in its tracks. We force
their cooperation because they know we could drag the legal
process out for years. That is why we have such a high
success rate (over 90%) of buying the note from the bank.
Remember that our process also protects you from having to face
a deficiency judgment, or receiving a 1099 from the lender…Once
your property is sold to us, you can track our progress in
purchasing your note from the bank here: http://walkawaytoday.org/fusion/.”
The
note came from “Richard Vaughn, Acquisition Manager, Home
Advocate Trustees LLC” at www.walkawaytoday.org
– “the nation’s largest short-sale buyer.” Richard can be found
at rvaughn@walkawaytoday.org.
Are banks going to be
buying mortgages next year? (Not the servicing, but the
asset.) Banks are seeing sharp growth in deposits regulatory
pressures to remain in liquid assets, and a lack-luster growth
in demand for loans & leases. An important driver of the
growth in domestic bank deposit base in 2011 came from the sharp
increase in dollar deposits by foreigners (at an annualized rate
of $373bn in 2011) and analysts expect foreigners to continue to
prefer to park cash in U.S. dollars than in other currencies
(specifically, Euro) over the next several months. Based on the
historical data, and the current outlook for various factors
that are likely to drive bank demand for securities, look for
them to invest up to $200 billion in new cash in securities over
the next one year. But the capital and liquidity coverage ratios
imposed, or expected to be imposed, by Basel III should continue
to play an important role in determining the bank demand for
agency MBS.
The
REMN 203(k) training
website was incorrectly noted yesterday. The webinar isn't
until 12/12, so there's time: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/731336208.
And for those who'd rather learn about USDA loans, Mountain West
is hosting a webinar on 12/12 from 10:30-11:30AM PST: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/506737586.
The
bond market still isn't convinced Europe will successfully find
a solution to save its banks and avoid defaults. And with no
substantial scheduled news out of the U.S. our markets reflect
what is going on there: Europe will set the tone. (Recent U.S.
economic data, while improving, is still indicating a stagnant
economy at best. Housing remains in depression and employment
shows little to no improvements.) Monday 10-year notes closed
nearly unchanged at 2.05%. MBS volumes were up slightly, but
demand was good so agency mortgage prices saw a slight
improvement. Today is a blank on the data front. In the early going we
find the 10-yr up to 2.08% and MBS prices worse by about .125.
(Parental
discretion
advised.)
Why some folks do not attend High School Reunions.
Jan, Sue and Mary haven't seen each other since high school.
They rediscover each other via a reunion website and arrange to
meet for lunch in a wine bar.
Jan arrives first, wearing beige Versace. She orders a bottle of
Pinot Grigio.
Sue arrives shortly afterward, in gray Chanel. After the
required ritualized kisses she joins Jan in a glass of wine.
Then Mary walks in, wearing a faded old tee-shirt, blue jeans
and boots. She too shares the wine.
Jan explains that after leaving high school and graduating from
Princeton in Classics, she met and married Timothy, with whom
she has a beautiful daughter. Timothy is a partner in one of New
York's leading law firms. They live in a 4,000 sq. ft. co-op on
Fifth Avenue, where Susanna, the daughter, attends drama school.
They have a second home in Phoenix.
Sue relates that she graduated from Harvard Med School and
became a surgeon. Her husband, Clive, is a leading Wall Street
investment banker. They live in Southampton on Long Island and
have a second home in Naples, Florida.
Mary explains that she left school at 17 and ran off with her
boyfriend, Jim. They run a tropical bird park in Colorado and
grow their own vegetables. Jim can stand five parrots, side by
side, on his "manhood".
Halfway down the third bottle of wine and several hours later,
Jan blurts out that her husband is really a cashier at Wal-Mart.
They live in a small apartment in Brooklyn and have a travel
trailer parked at a nearby storage facility.
Sue, chastened and encouraged by her old friend's honesty,
explains that she and Clive are both nurses' aides in a
retirement home. They live in Jersey City and take vacation
camping trips to Alabama.
Mary says that the fifth parrot has to stand on one leg.
If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the
STRATMOR Group web site located at