Please
excuse
any grammar errors this morning - I am still recovering after
fainting during my visit to the gas station last night -
$4.20/gallon for regular unleaded near San Francisco. Say what
you want about the consumer being resilient, but money spent on gasoline is
money not spent somewhere else - like in helping our
economy. Most of this is due to issues surrounding Iran’s naval
maneuvers and then moving to Iran’s nuclear program. Experts
think all this will be resolved, but analysts are already seeing
this recent spike put a damper on global growth. As a rule of
thumb, a $10/barrel rise in oil is a 0.2% drag on global GDP and
a 0.3% drag on US GDP, and combined with the recession
possibilities in Europe this is not good for economies - but fine for rates. But as
we all know, oil prices have gone up and down for over a hundred
years.
One
institution which has been around nearly a hundred years
(originally chartered in 1922 as Heritage Bank), is Dallas’
NexBank. NexBank is
hiring wholesale AE’s in Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma,
Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico. NexBank Wholesale was
established in August 2008 but as a State Savings Bank is
licensed to purchase loans nationwide. The company has Freddie
Mac seller/servicer status, and offers wholesale and
mini-correspondent and even warehouse lines to clients. For more
information on the firm visit https://mortgage.nexbank.com
or www.nexbank.com;
resumes should be sent to Jed Meaux at Jed.Meaux@NexBank.com.
Any
time an e-mail begins with, "The Federal Reserve Board on Monday
released action plans for supervised financial institutions to
correct deficiencies in residential mortgage loan servicing and
foreclosure processing," it makes one sit up and take notice: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/enforcement/20120227a.htm.
One
correction for the Sunday commentary: for Freddie Mac, it
mistakenly said that “non-assumable Sec. 502 RHS loans with
settlement dates after June 1 must be sold back to Freddie.”
This is not the case - the loans can be sold to Freddie Mac but
must be sold with
recourse. Here's the relevant sentence from the bulletin:
"With this Single Family Seller/Servicer Guide Bulletin, we are
revising our requirements for non-assumable Rural Housing
Service (RHS) Section 502 GRH Mortgages to require that these
mortgages be sold with recourse."
As
anticipated, HUD
announced that mortgages backed by the FHA will become more
expensive. Once again, future borrowers are paying for the
problems of previous borrowers – the money will be used to
bolster the sagging reserves in the FHA mortgage insurance
premium fund. Hopefully any more claims that FHA is “fine” and
doesn’t need more capital will stop in the near future – it does
need more capital. The increase in insurance premiums would
bring in about $1.25 billion during the rest of 2012 and through
September 2013 which will be added to about $1 billion FHA is
receiving from the servicer settlement. Every little billion
helps…
First,
remember that the agency
does not make loans, or buy loans, but instead insures
mortgages that meet its guidelines. Mortgage insurance,
similar to a guaranty fee, protects one party from the risks of
the borrower becoming delinquent of going into foreclosure. With
all this talk about FHA and compare ratios, and
the removal of the streamline product from the calculations, it
might be helpful to know where to find it. Anyone wishing to
check it out for themselves can do so through https://entp.hud.gov/sfnw/public/.
Click on the "Early Warnings" menu, Single Lender or general,
and go from there. (And no, I don't know specific lender ID's.)
If you want to see compare ratios excluding streamline
refinances, they can be found through the "Analysis Menu."
FHA’s
guidelines are very lenient, although most lenders have overlays
in order to bolster the product, and claim that borrowers with
credit scores of 580 or more can put down as little as 3.5
percent. The FHA will increase its annual mortgage insurance
premium by 0.10 of a percentage point for loans under $625,500,
which would now cost 1.25 percent of the loan amount, up from
1.15 percent, on 4/1. And starting on 6/1 the premium for larger
loans would rise more, or by 0.35 of a percentage point,
bringing the total premium to 1.5 percent. This annual premium
is broken down in monthly payments. The upfront mortgage premium
is also increasing by 0.75 of a percentage point, bringing the
premium to 1.75 percent of the loan amount, which can be
financed/added into the mortgage.
I
have not heard any details yet on the FHA’s possible plans on
some softening of the streamlined refi rules or charges for
borrowers refinancing pre-Oct 2010 loans that were made under
much lower annual MIPs. The expectation is that the FHA will
grandfather all or a portion of the old, lower MIP. Certainly
investors in Ginnie Mae MBS’s are concerned about how much
easing that HUD will do on streamlined refis.
As
noted recently, Fannie & Freddie’s big book of problem loans
came from 2005-2008, but the FHA wasn't insuring many loans in
the bubble years. The
FHA’s big exposure has come with its gain in market share
after the demise of the subprime lending industry
(remember LO’s saying FHA loans are “the new subprime”?) And
though recent production is "better" quality, they're still FHA
loans, which means cum default rates well above 5%, which means
that the FHA fund will continue to face financial pressures for
the next several years.
Put
another way, what the
does the change mean to borrowers? In the future, the two
tiers of FHA MI change. Starting April 1 the up-front MI for
loans up $729,750 will be 1.75% of loan amount (up from 1%). The
annual MI for loans up to $729,750 will be 1.2% of loan amount
if the down payment is 5% or more, or 1.25% of loan amount if
the down payment is less than 5% starting 4/1. And the annual MI
for loans $625,501 to 729,750 will be 1.45% of loan amount if
the down payment is 5% or more, or 1.5% of loan amount if the
down payment is less than 5% starting June 1. Borrowers had
better pay attention to when they’re in contract!
The
HSOA news continues.
David Basaleli, the SVP & Director of Operations for Guaranteed Home Mortgage
Company, writes, “A number of days ago our firm was
approached with an opportunity to take over all mortgage
operations of the ailing Home Savings of America. After a number
of meetings with the president and CEO of HSOA, a NYC investment
banking firm, and a prolific specialty financial services firm,
it was decided that this acquisition would take place over the
course of the next 45 days. After 2 days of marathon meetings
with executives of both companies and various advisers and
financiers, most of the details of the transition had been
worked out, and branch introductions were planned for Saturday,
February 25th. Unfortunately at the last moment on Friday, it
became known that the FDIC had chosen that day to cease the
operations of HSOA. Since the bank no longer had the authority
to sell its assets, including the mortgage company, the plans
for the formal acquisition of the HSOA Mortgage by Guaranteed
Home Mortgage was scrapped. Fortunately for Guaranteed and the
mortgage production staff of HSOA, most details of a branch
transition and soft landing had already been ironed out. I'm
proud to say that most of the HSOA mortgage branches have found
an opportunity to apply to, and become branches of Guaranteed
Home Mortgage Company, in the coming days and weeks.”
How
about a sample of some
upcoming events? The Colorado Mortgage Lenders Association
is hosting “The Future of the Residential Real Estate Market and
How to Capitalize On It!” on Thursday, 11:30 MST in Greenwood
Village. For more information go to http://cmla.com/. Down in New
Mexico, on March 8th, the NMMLA is having a lunch at the
Albuquerque Country Club to discuss the local real estate market
- www.nmmla.org
for more information. And in Massachusetts, the MMBA is
presenting its "1st Annual Secondary Market and Loan Servicing
Conference" on May 8th: http://www.massmba.com/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid944.
On
Tuesday, March 6th, at 2PM EST, AllRegs is hosting a
free webinar on “Investor Overlay Comparisons” and focused on
its new product Market Clarity. (“It’s the only tool in the
industry allowing for product level overlay comparisons across
any combination of agencies, MI companies or lenders.”) Contact
Linda Bomar at lbomar@allregs.com for
details. If you want to preview Market Clarity prior to the
webinar, check it out at http://www.allregsmortgage.com/categories/Market-Clarity/.
Turning
to the markets, the decent news in housing continued yesterday
with NAR’s release of Pending Home Sales. In January it reached
its highest level in almost two years. The Index is a forward
looking indicator (basically two months) based on contracts for
home purchases that have been signed but where the transaction
has not closed. By the end of a relatively quiet Monday the
10-yr T-note closed around a 1.93 yield.
This
morning we’re asking, “Does a change in rating from a rating
agency cause the market to move, or is it merely reflecting what
the market already knows?” Probably the latter - Standard &
Poor's, as expected, downgraded the long-term credit rating of
Greece to “selective default,” making it the first country in
the euro zone to officially be rated in default. The move came
after Greece retroactively included collective-action clauses to
its bond contracts. In the U.S. Durable Goods were -4%, much
worse than expected, and even ex-transportation were down 3.2%.
There were some back-month revisions higher, however. Ahead of
us we have the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index (expected
down) and at 10AM is the Consumer Confidence number. In the early going the
10-yr is at 1.91% and MBS prices are about .125 better.
A burglar breaks into a house late one evening and starts to
roam around the living room looking for valuables to steal.
Suddenly
he
hears a voice say “Jesus is watching you”.
Startled,
he
shines his flashlight over in the corner where the voice came
from and saw a parrot sitting in a cage. The burglar then says
to the parrot, “Was that you?”
The
parrot replies “Yes”.
The
burglar asks the parrot, “What is your name”, to which the
parrot replies, “Clarence”.
The
burglar then asks the parrot, “What idiot named you Clarence?”
The
parrot replied, “The same idiot that name the Rottweiler
‘Jesus’”.
If
you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the STRATMOR
Group web site located at