Two-thirds
of
the way through the 1st quarter, and we find
ourselves in Irish-American Heritage Month, which, happily for
Chicago, contains St. Patrick’s Day. This day was originally a
religious holiday to honor St. Patrick, who introduced
Christianity to Ireland in the fifth century, St. Patrick’s Day
has evolved into a celebration for all things Irish. Congress
apparently put aside partisan squabbling long enough to proclaim
March as Irish-American Heritage Month in 1995. And why
shouldn’t they? Per the Census Bureau there are about 35 million
U.S. residents who claimed Irish ancestry in 2010 - more than
seven times the population of Ireland itself (4.58 million).
Irish was the nation’s second most frequently reported ancestry,
trailing only German. The percent of New York state residents
who were of Irish ancestry in 2010 is 13% compared to about 11%
for the nation as a whole. Lastly, $56k is the median income for
households headed by an Irish-American, higher than the $50k
nationwide average.
Catch
the wave - just don't ask me about any warehouse banks
supporting this program. Per the MBA, HARP is starting to take
hold in the applications figures. According to Michael
Fratantoni with the MBA, more than 20% of refinance applications last week were
for HARP loans – one would deduce primarily from large
depository servicers. Does that narrow things down?
If
you don’t like RESPA kickbacks, and who does, you might want to
sign on to this Petition: http://www.change.org/petitions/increase-respa-statute-of-limitations-to-6-years.
The purpose is to extend the time line that the regulators can
go after people and companies for illegal kickbacks.
I
received some good feedback yesterday on Echo Boomer’s home
ownership goals, or lack thereof. Boris K. wrote: “With regard
to the Gen Y homeownership priorities discussion, is it so
terrible for these people to rent? The absence of the
'homeownership as the American dream' myth propagated for
decades by politicians, the NAR and other special interests may
have spared us the housing bubble and the resulting recession. I think it's a shame that
the real American dream, i.e. freedom and liberty, has been
supplanted by a decades-long homeownership PR campaign by
politicians and other housing industry special interests to
falsely identify a material desire like homeownership as the
'American dream'.”
Ray W. wrote, "I’m not sure I agree with the Baby Boomers being
the first generation to consider home ownership the principal
component of the American Dream. I’m pretty sure the vast
majority of the boomers parents (WWII Greatest Generation) that
followed the new interstate systems out to the burbs to make
those little Boomers in their own new homes were an earlier
generation who valued home ownership as a principal component of
the dream even if they also had other priorities (careers &
education) and more balanced investments than most boomers.
Arguably, the earlier generation of the 1920’s in which many of
the thrifts and savings & loans was also very much focused
on home ownership as integral part of their American Dream. Home
ownership & jobs (aka, a better life) have been among the
primary drivers of most of the immigration patterns out of
Europe with the exception of the earliest immigrants who strove
for religions and political freedom as their overarching
motivation.”
Regarding
HUD’s
charge of discrimination against BofA under the Fair Housing Act
(three borrowers who said they were required to provide personal
medical information and documentation regarding their disability
and proof of the continuance of the Social Security payments in
order to qualify for a home mortgage loan), I received, “So - we
are held accountable by the GSA’s to confirm that income sources
will have sufficient continuance, and then HUD wants to litigate
for damages when we do so? Temporary Disability is not
considered adequate income for qualifying, based on my 33 years
as a loan originator. So when a loan is denied on that basis,
our reward for protecting the interests of potential investors
is to be sued by parties representing the interests of the
applicant. Didn’t Kurt Vonnegut write a book about this?"
And
Cheryl S. observes, "I found it quite interesting that Bank of
America is involved in a lawsuit of alleged discrimination
regarding disabled borrowers. I have processed residential
mortgage loans for more than 20 years and have been required to
provide this very type of documentation. The Social
Security Administration will only document that a person is
receiving a benefit, same with any pension or insurance
disability payments; neither will they state, in writing, that
the income is expected to last at least 3 years. In order to
meet the agency’s underwriting guideline that the income is
expected to continue for at least 3 years, it has become common
practice to request a physician’s statement. The physician’s
statement is not always a simple request, as many are leery to
state anything in writing as well. I believe any disabled
borrower that has applied for an agency mortgage loan has been
asked to provide a physician’s statement or other documentation
regarding their disability in order for that income to be
considered in the loan qualification process. Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac should be watching this one very closely. It will be
interesting as to how this plays out.”
Fannie
has lots of other things to watch – like losing $2.4 billion
in the 4th quarter and asking the federal
government for nearly $4.6 billion in aid to cover its deficit.
Folks keeping track should know that the -$2.4 billion includes
a dividend payment to the government of $2.6 billion – glad to
see someone making some coin – but taxpayers have spent more
than $150 billion to prop up Fannie and Freddie. Fannie has
received more than $116 billion so far from the Treasury
Department, the most expensive bailout of a single company.
“Fannie's bailout money totaled roughly $16.4 billion in 2011
after accounting for dividend payments. That's up from about
$7.3 billion in 2010 but down from about $32.5 billion in 2009.”
But here is the classic. Fannie officials say losses have
increased in recent quarters for two reasons: some homeowners are paying
less interest after refinancing at historically low mortgage
rates; others are defaulting on their mortgages.
As
we all know, agency loans must go through the UCDP. I received this
note; "Loans delivered to the Agencies have to have the
appraisals delivered through the Uniform Collateral Data Portal
(UCDP). The portal site appears to be overwhelmed by volume
(how does that happen? Didn’t someone try to figure out
potential volumes and test against it?). The UCDP portal has
become very blocked in the last week or so. The problems are
prevalent around that clock and on several days the site has
been largely inaccessible for the majority of the day. Right
now the portal is accepting appraisals with minor data errors.
Supposedly they’re going to tighten up on March 19 and require
perfect data after that. Appraisals will be turned back and
resubmissions are going to be costly. Everyone better have a
solution to ensure the appraisal data elements are correct. Can
you imagine what’s going to happen to the portal when HARP 2.0
volume takes off?" So wrote G Brad Harvey with Triserve Appraisal
Management. (If you want to get in touch with Mr. Harvey,
write to him at bharvey@triservllc.com.
Turning
to the markets, Europe has been relatively quiet and so we find
our markets back to being driven by U.S. news. Wednesday prices
worsened on somewhat better than expected economic news but
primarily comments from Chairman Bernanke's testimony before the
House Financial Services Committee. He noted growth in the
economy and positive developments in the labor market. "The
decline in the unemployment rate over the past year has been
somewhat more rapid than might have been expected, given that
the economy appears to have been growing during that time frame
at or below its longer-term trend." The Fed’s Beige Book,
showing reports from the various Fed districts, echoed his
comments. There is, and will be, a lot of jawboning about QE3 –
but the economy seems to be bumping along at a slightly better
pace. By the end of the day MBS prices ended lower/worse by
nearly .5 and the 10-yr was up to 1.98%.
I
am heading off to Orlando for a few days, and am sending this
out before I know what rates have in store for us on Thursday.
We will have the usual Initial Jobless Claims (expected
unchanged) and Personal Income & Consumption for January
(both expected +.4%). At 10AM EST we’ll have January’s
Construction Spending numbers and an ISM number. Besides a few
other Fed speakers we’ll have Chairman Bernanke repeating his
semiannual Monetary Policy report to the Senate Banking
Committee beginning at 10:00.
CATHOLIC COFFEE MORNING IN ROME.
Four old Catholic men and a Catholic woman were having coffee in
St. Peters Square.
The first Catholic man tells his friends, "My son is a priest,
when he walks into a room everyone calls him 'Father'."
The second Catholic man chirps, "My son is a Bishop. When he
walks into a room people call him 'Your Grace'."
The
third Catholic gent says, "My son is a Cardinal. When he enters
a room everyone bows their head and says 'Your Eminence'."
The
fourth Catholic man says very proudly, "My son is the Pope. When
he walks into a room people call him 'Your Holiness'."
Since
the lone Catholic woman was sipping her coffee in silence, the
four men give her a subtle, "Well....?"
She proudly replies, “I have a daughter, slim and tall, 40D
chest, 24" waist and 34" hips. When she walks into a room,
people say, ‘Oh my God’.”
If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the
STRATMOR Group web site located at