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Mar. 15, 2012: Mortgage jobs continue; a primer on why we care about Treasury auction results; Thornburg execs reply
Rob Chrisman
The
weekly MBA application index, which typically doesn’t generate
waves of excitement, is becoming more interesting – especially
for companies whose companies rise and fall based on refi’s. The
overall index yesterday was down 2.4%, so while the purchase
component was up over 4% the refi portion dropped over 4%, with
refi’s now accounting for
“only” about 75% of overall applications. Mike Fratantoni
of the MBA, who is here at the Atlantic City MBA conference,
noted that as “HARP
volume continued to grow as a share of total refinance
volume, reaching roughly 30% of refinance activity in the last
two weeks. Typical HARP loans had loan-to-value ratios above 90
percent, indicating that lenders are reaching out to underwater
borrowers.” Not only that, but the ARM share is eking higher, is
represented almost 6% of new biz.
Mortgage
hiring
continues out west. BofI
Federal Bank is looking for a National Operations Manager
to oversee the growth of its Retail, Wholesale and Correspondent
operations divisions. BofI Federal Bank, a $2.3 billion dollar
branchless thrift based in San Diego, runs an affinity-based
retail lending platform and a portfolio jumbo wholesale and
correspondent business. BofI also recently announced their
entrance into the warehouse lending business, offering warehouse
lines up to $25 million for agency and jumbo originations. For
more information, please contact Brian Swanson SVP, Head of
Single Family Lending at brian.swanson@bofifederalbank.com
or Darin Sullivan, VP, Warehouse Lending & Mortgage
Operations at darin.sullivan@bofifederalbank.com.
In Northern California New
Penn Financial is looking for underwriters for its
wholesale division. New Penn, owned by Shellpoint Partners, has
been picking up some momentum and now has over 600 employees and
licensing in 39 states. Ideal underwriter candidates should be
knowledgeable, of course, and have a minimum of 3 years’
experience in underwriting in the mortgage industry (FHA and DE
experience a plus). Anyone interested in further discussing the
position, please email your resume to Aubrie Cusumano at acusumano@newpennfinancial.com.
A couple of the ex-Thornburg executives responded to the SEC's
lawsuit, with some phrases very similar to Quicken's statement
of the Freeman vs. Quicken Loans case ("wholly without merit"
comes to mind). The courts will decide if the $400 million is
due to a mark-to-market requirement that resulted from an
accounting issue (FASB 157) that was triggered by the repo
market, or fraud:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/former-tmst-inc-fka-thornburg-mortgage-executives-respond-to-sec-lawsuit-2012-03-13.
By the way, a few
folks wrote to say that they though Bank of Internet was
Thornburg reborn. Thornburg, while they've gone away BOFI
Federal Bank has replaced Thornburg in the market with “niche,
make-sense loan programs for borrowers with assets but that fall
outside the typical Fannie/Freddie box. BOFI lends in all 50
states and will allow both wholesale and correspondent
relationships. Interested lenders can visit www.bofilendingpartners.com
for more information.
Hey, just because the large servicing companies and the state
attorneys general reached a $25 billion settlement doesn't mean
that every county in every state can't sue them for the same
thing. A county in North Carolina has begun: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505247_162-57397581/nc-county-sues-banks-over-mortgage-robo-signing/.
We've had a lull in Treasury auctions, but they certainly
haven't gone away. The Treasury is tasked with raising money to
fund the federal government, which includes paying interest on
older debt, and the obvious way it does this is through periodic
Treasury auctions of bills, notes, and bonds. (T-bills have a
maturity less than a year, notes from 1-10 years, and bonds out
past that, like 30 years.) Economists use the auction
results to gauge the interest in our debt: the more interest,
the higher the price. Along those lines, investors also watch
the yields at which the securities are sold, which vary
inversely with the price. Most average loan officers
merely see the result of the auctions - if the securities are
sold as expected, interest rates may not move much. But if the
auction went poorly, i.e., no one really wanted to buy the
securities, which dropped the price, interest rates can go up
because of it. And every auction is measured against the one
before it.
Yesterday we had a 30-yr bond auction. One trader wrote, "The
30-year bond reopening stopped basically right on the screws
(tiny tail) and the auction statistics were close to the recent
averages. This auction was not as good recent reopenings, but
respectable in its own right. The 30-year reopening stopped at
3.383%. The WI was bid at 3.382% at 1:00PM. The auction
generated a bid/cover of 2.70, which compares with an average of
2.63 in the four most recent auctions and 2.54 over the past 12
months. Noncomps were $7.5 million vs. $36.5 million a month
ago." What the heck does that mean? First, remember that a high
demand for anything, whether it is U.S. debt or a lock of George
Washington's hair, will drive the price up; low demand typically
causes prices to drop. Something else to keep in mind is that
Primary Dealers, approved by the Federal Reserve, must bid on
Treasury auctions to stay in the club. Treasury auctions are "Dutch Auctions" where
bidders submit the minimum yield they're willing to accept, and
then the yield moves higher (price moves lower) until the issue
is sold old - the auction "stops" at the high yield. And the
results of any auction can be seen at www.treasurydirect.gov.
"When-Issued" could be considered the primary means of
establishing the expected yield (rate) of a security sold at an
auction. In many U.S. Treasury auction results, there are two
different yields that come into play. The first set are the
normal yields that one reads about in the newspaper or TV, and
then there's the "when-issued" market, which is like the
market's bet on where the auction will "stop" (awarded high
yield). When-issued trading "reduces uncertainties surrounding
Treasury auctions by serving as a price discovery mechanism.
Bidders look to when-issued trading levels as a market gauge of
demand in determining how to bid at an auction" and also helps
Treasury by "stretching out the actual distribution period for
each issue, allowing the market more time to absorb large issues
without disruption". If dealers are able to sell to investors
on a when-issued basis, it effectively puts the ball in the
dealers' courts at auction to pick up the pre-sold supply, thus
"concentrating bidding interest in the hands of market
participants that have a substantial financial incentive to
identify correctly the price that balances demand with supply."
All that said, you can simply think of "when-issued" or "WI" as
the same as where experts think the securities are going to be
sold - it's the running guess at where the auction's high-yield
will stop. The word “stop” is important too because it doesn't
just mean that the auction is over, but specifically has the
connotation of the "awarded high yield." Generally, when the
high yield is lower than the when-issued (or "WI" yield), the
auction is referred to as having "stopped through" or "traded
through." In this case "stop" carries an implicitly positive
connotation. The opposite of this sort of "stop through" is a
"tail." In other words, if the yield stops at a HIGHER level
than when-issued, the auction is said to have "tailed." Bottom
line, auctions either "stop through" or "tail," unless they hit
the when-issued yield (measured just before results are
released) exactly in which case, most refer to the auction as
being "on the screws."
As far as the other metrics that allow us to say such things as
"better-than-expected" etc... that comes simply from an
examination of past performance. There are numerous components
of each auction that are measured, such as bid-to-cover, % of
the total amount awarded to dealers vs. non dealers, % of those
awards versus amount bid (aka: "hit-rate"), and more. Probably
the most important and easiest-to-understand among these would
be Bid-to-Cover, which is a measure of demand: how many dollars
of bids were submitted for each dollar auctioned. Using my HP
12C, if there were $75 billion in bids for a sale of $25 billion
30-yr bonds, it would be 3.0. To sum up, as Mortgage News Daily
points out, when
economic news comes out the markets trade off of expectations,
and the same holds for Treasury auctions.
Turning to something equally as Darwinistic, in New York mutual
holding company Northfield
Bancorp is buying another mutual - Flatbush Federal Bancorp
- for about $8.1mm. And from overseas, Great Western Bancorp
out of South Dakota, a unit of National Australia Bank, will buy
Iowa's North Central
Bancshares. For those playing along at home, Great Western
now has 200 branches in 7 states - g'day, mate.
Community banks with less
than $500 million in assets breathed a sigh of relief on
the news that the FHA will not require them to meet financial
and compliance audit requirements.
Wednesday was not a good day for any borrower, broker, or LO who
failed to lock earlier in the week. As the economy continues to
show signs of picking up, thoughts of QE3, like those of a
double dip recession, seem to be ebbing. All is relatively quiet
in Europe, the Fed has indicated that the future looks a little
rosier, U.S. economic numbers in some sectors are showing some
strength, and suddenly we find our rates have shifted out of the
range they’ve been in since Halloween. And when you throw in
higher-than-normal selling by originators (almost double recent
averages) hedging their pipelines, well, things can become ugly.
The 10-yr T-note worsened by nearly 1.5 in price, closing around
2.27%, and “rate sheet” MBS pricing worsened by about 1.125.
Today
has a full economic news calendar: at 8:30AM are Empire State
Manufacturing Survey (expected lower), Initial Jobless Claims
(expected lower), and the Producer Price Index (expected higher
to +0.5% from +0.1% with the Core lower to +0.2% from +0.4%).
And at 10AM EST is the Philly Fed Survey for March. It’s still
pretty early, but it would appear that the market has some
momentum toward slightly higher rates again with the 10-yr up to 2.31% and
MBS prices worse by another .125.
A woman was having a passionate affair with an Irish inspector
from a pest-control company. One afternoon they were carrying
on in the bedroom together when her husband arrived home
unexpectedly.
"Quick," said the woman to the lover, "into the closet!" and she
pushed him in the closet, stark naked.
The husband, however, became suspicious and after a search of
the bedroom discovered the man in the closet.
"Who are you?" he asked him.
"I'm an inspector from Bugs-B-Gone," said the exterminator.
"What are you doing in there?" the husband asked.
"I'm investigating a complaint about an infestation of moths,"
the man replied.
"And where are your clothes?" asked the husband.
The man looked down at himself and said, "Faith and Begorrah!
Those little devils!"
If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the
STRATMOR Group web site located at
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